Here we go again... Hurricane Rita now Class 4, Texas, New Orleans prepare...

JJR512

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Hurricane Rita upgraded to Category 4
Maximum sustained winds reach 135 mph

Wednesday, September 21, 2005; Posted: 8:06 a.m. EDT (12:06 GMT)

KEY LARGO, Florida (CNN) -- Hurricane Rita picked up strength Wednesday as it churned toward the Texas Gulf Coast and was upgraded to a Category 4 storm with winds topping 135 mph.

At 8 a.m. ET, Rita centered was about 195 miles west of Key West, Florida, and 790 miles east-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas.

The latest extended forecast from the hurricane center has Rita gathering strength before the eye makes landfall near Galveston, Texas, late Friday or early Saturday. That would place Rita about midway between New Orleans and Brownsville, Texas.

A Category 4 storm, with top sustained winds of 131 to 155 mph, can cause extreme damage, according to the Saffir-Simpson scale measuring hurricane strength.

Galveston orders evacuations
In Galveston, a city of 60,000 flattened by a hurricane in 1900, Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas declared a state of emergency Tuesday night and ordered mandatory evacuations of nursing homes, assisted living centers and similar facilities starting at 6 a.m. Wednesday. The evacuation plan applies to all of Galveston County.

She also said mandatory evacuations of other parts of the city would begin at 6 p.m. Wednesday, and continue into Thursday. The evacuations are being done in phases, according to where people live. Galveston schools will close, beginning Wednesday, Thomas said.

"Conditions in the central Gulf are much like they were for Katrina," hurricane center meteorologist Ed Rappaport told CNN Tuesday evening.

Nearly 1,000 deaths have been blamed on Hurricane Katrina, which struck August 29.

Saying an effective response to Hurricane Rita is "beyond the capabilities of the state and affected local governments," Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Babineaux Blanco on Tuesday asked President Bush to declare a state of emergency ahead of the storm. (Full story)

Blanco declared a state of emergency for parishes in the southwestern portion of her state in case Rita hits closer to the Texas state line.

"Right now it's between Galveston and Brownsville, which is a little bit further west from Louisiana," Blanco said. "We are still concerned, though, about the possibility of rising waters, tides that may be higher than normal. They could be 2 to 3 feet higher than normal, which could impact our low-lying areas in this region of the state, in the southeast region."

Louisiana officials are looking for additional shelter space in case Rita heads there. As a result of Katrina, 13,000 people are housed in shelters south of Interstate 10, the area considered most vulnerable to hurricanes.

Rita is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula, with isolated storm total amounts of 12 inches. Rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches are possible over western Cuba and 1 to 3 inches over the northern Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over portions of western Cuba.

New Orleans gets ready
New Orleans began the process of evacuating the few residents who remain in the hurricane-ravaged city Tuesday ahead of a new threat from Rita, Mayor Ray Nagin said.

Coast Guard Vice Adm. Thad Allen, the federal point man for recovery efforts, said 500 buses are standing by to take people out of the city, and contingency plans were being made to use commercial jetliners to get people out if necessary.

"I think the federal government, the state government and local government are a lot smarter this time around," Nagin said.

During his fifth visit to Louisiana to monitor recovery efforts from Hurricane Katrina, President Bush on Tuesday issued a federal emergency declaration for the state of Florida, ordering federal aid to supplement state and local response efforts there. (Full story)

U.S. military troops and equipment in Louisiana that had been brought in to help in the aftermath of Katrina were considering evacuations if Rita continued on its current path.

The warships USS Iwo Jima and USS Shreveport have orders to steam out of New Orleans Wednesday if the storm stayed on course, the U.S. Northern Command said Tuesday.

The Northern Command also is identifying shelters and havens outside of New Orleans it might use to house the thousands of National Guard and active duty troops now engaged in relief efforts.

National Guard troops in southeast Louisiana may be repositioned to high-rise parking lots and similar facilities to be ready to react in case there's more flooding in New Orleans, said Brig. Gen. Joseph "Brod" Veillon.

Lt. Col. William J. Doran III of the state's Office of Emergency Preparedness said Tuesday that 3,000 buses are available to Louisiana's parishes for evacuations.

So far, none have been requested.

Rita's designation as a hurricane makes it the ninth in the busy 2005 Atlantic season, which has seen 17 named storms, with more than two months left to go.

Army Corps of Engineers Col. Duane Gapinski, in charge of draining New Orleans, said Tuesday night that even if Rita dumps 3 inches of rain over a six-hour period, causing 2 feet to 4 feet of flooding, the Corps should be able to pump the water out in a couple of days.

The Corps declared New Orleans "essentially dry" Tuesday night, after pumping three-quarters of a trillion gallons of water from the city into Lake Pontchartrain in the past 2 1/2 weeks. (Full story)

CNN's Dan Lothian, John Zarrella, Rob Marciano, Barbara Starr and Shelby Linn contributed to this report.
 
I don't take sucker bets.

Anyone betting that the Army Engineers' levee work won't hold water against a near hit from a Cat-4 storm?

Price of gas going up again folx!
 
It's currently Cat 5. 145 kts = 167 mph = 269 km/h.

National Hurricane Center said:
HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

AND YET ANOTHER CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE THIS SEASON. DATA FROM BOTH
NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT
PRESSURE DROP TODAY AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 145 KNOTS. THIS IS
BASED ON A 700 MB WIND OF 161 KNOTS RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR
FORCE PLANE AND A RECALIBRATED SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 146 KNOTS.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE UNANIMOUSLY 140 KNOTS FROM ALL
AGENCIES. BECAUSE RITA WILL BE CROSSING AN AREA OF HIGH HEAT
CONTENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE
HURRICANE WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH. THEREAFTER...THE OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AND THE INTENSITY CHANGES WILL BE CONTROLLED
MAINLY BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND DECREASING HEAT CONTENT.
SOME WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BUT RITA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN AND RITA IS MOVING
WESTWARD OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
HAS BEEN FORCING RITA WESTWARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE
CORE OF RITA IS BASICALLY MOVING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST AND THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE HAS BEGUN TO EXPAND
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALREADY EXTEND ABOUT 150 N MI IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. BECAUSE ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OF THE WIND
FIELD IS ANTICIPATED...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 24.4N 86.8W 145 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 24.5N 88.5W 145 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 25.2N 90.6W 145 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 26.0N 92.7W 135 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 27.0N 94.5W 125 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 30.5N 97.0W 65 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 25/1800Z 33.0N 97.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/1800Z 36.0N 96.0W 25 KT...INLAND
 
Professur said:
Anyone betting against it topping Class 5 before it makes landfall?

Theoretically that can't happen. When the cyclone reaches that level of intensity it begins to draw cooler water up to the surface, which stalls the development of the cyclone. Sort of a governor effect. I'll see if I can scare up some hard facts to support that statement.
 
Christ, another cat 5. *shakes head*

Buckle down, Galveston! Get the hell out of there before you have a repeat of 1900. That little storm makes New Orleans look like a fucking church picnic. Best estimates of between 6,000-12,000 dead.
 
These images update automatically and will reflect the most current information:

at200518_sat.jpg


ritawind.gif
 
Sharky said:
Theoretically that can't happen. When the cyclone reaches that level of intensity it begins to draw cooler water up to the surface, which stalls the development of the cyclone. Sort of a governor effect. I'll see if I can scare up some hard facts to support that statement.

That's what I thought too.
 
there are a few headed this way .. this one is *supposed* to miss us by 300 miles or so ... whatcha think?
 
nalani said:
there are a few headed this way .. this one is *supposed* to miss us by 300 miles or so ... whatcha think?

The National Weather Service Central Pacific Hurricane Center's website is teh FUBAR, none of their links seem to be working except this one:University of Hawai'i Meteorology Tropical Weather Page and according to the latest discussion they expect Jova to weaken due to deep layer shear. And they seem to think it will hold it's current track:

NWS said:
HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
11 AM HST WED SEP 21 2005

THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS HURRICANE JOVA ON THE OLD TRACK
TRAJECTORY...BUT THE FORECAST FORWARD SPEEDS HAVE BEEN REDUCED
BEYOND 48 HOURS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LATEST MODEL ENSEMBLES WHICH
KEEP JOVA NO FARTHER NORTH THAN 42N AT 120 HOURS. GUNA AND CONU KEEP
JOVA SOUTH OF 37N AT 120 HOURS. JOVA WILL GRADUALLY SPEED UP TO 18
KT AT THE END OF THE FORECAST TRACK WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.

HURRICANE JOVA RETAINS ITS 100 KT INITIAL STRENGTH BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY DVORAK NUMBERS OF 5.5 FROM CPHC...JTWC...GWC AND SAB.
INITIAL MOVEMENT IS TOWARDS 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT. IN SPITE OF THE
RESILIENCE SHOWN WITH OBSERVED JOVA INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RECONCILE GFDL...UKMI AND AVNI INTENSITY
GUIDANCE WITH THE FORECAST SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE TRACKS SUGGESTED BY THESE MODELS. IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT THAT JOVA COULD MAINTAIN STRENGTH AT 103
KT...AS DEPICTED BY GFDI...OR 97 KT...AS DEPICTED BY UKMI...AT 120
HOURS GIVEN FORECAST DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20 KT OR GREATER AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 22 TO 24C DEGREE RANGE. WITH THE LATEST
GFS75 DEEP LAYER SHEAR DEPICTIONS IN MIND...THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLS FOR JOVA TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN MORE RAPIDLY
TO 50 KT THROUGH 120 HOURS.

JOVA WOULD BE SLOWER TO WEAKEN IF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LESS THAN
FORECAST ALONG ITS PROJECTED TRACK.

THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES HURRICANE JOVA TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST...THEN
NORTH NORTHWEST...PASSING ABOUT 330 MILES EAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS.

FORECASTER POWELL


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 17.9N 147.2W 100 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 18.6N 147.9W 95 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 19.6N 148.9W 95 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 20.9N 149.8W 90 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 22.7N 150.8W 80 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 27.4N 152.7W 70 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 33.1N 153.7W 60 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 40.4N 154.1W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

Given that information, my guess is that you guys are gonna be OK. :cool:
 
Sharky said:
It's currently Cat 5. 145 kts = 167 mph = 269 km/h.
Interesting piece of trivia for y'all.

A 747 takes off (fully loaded) at 160mph.
This wind can effectivly lift a 747 if the wind hits it right. :eek:
 
nalani said:
umm.. dude, isn't that what i *just* said in one sentence?

:D

nalani said:
there are a few headed this way .. this one is *supposed* to miss us by 300 miles or so ... whatcha think?

Any self-respecting WeatherGeek[sup]TM[/sup] will not pass up an opportunity to do research and opinonate. :nerd:

Or to make up words like "opinionate". :lloyd:
 
MrBishop said:
Interesting piece of trivia for y'all.

A 747 takes off (fully loaded) at 160mph.
This wind can effectivly lift a 747 if the wind hits it right. :eek:

That would be the world's coolest kite. :cool:
 
Professur said:
Anyone betting against it topping Class 5 before it makes landfall?
Sharky said:
Theoretically that can't happen. When the cyclone reaches that level of intensity it begins to draw cooler water up to the surface, which stalls the development of the cyclone. Sort of a governor effect. I'll see if I can scare up some hard facts to support that statement.


Not to mention Cat 5 is the highest classification :lloyd:
 
Luis G said:
Global warming is a myth.


[/sarcasm]

Considering that these storms seem to come in 30 year cycles...and have been since they first started charting them...yes. Global warming is not responsible for either storm. :lloyd:
 
chcr said:
The idea that mankind is the sole cause is though.

That in no way implies that mankind is not a reason and does not imply either the magnitude of mankind's cooperation to it ;)
 
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